To many, the cosy-up between the Irish state and the Belarusian opposition embodies the undistilled naivety of our national pretensions to become a Europeanised cog in a wider geopolitical game not of our making.
A sandwiched post-Soviet statelet with a tentative claim on a distinct nationality from Russia, Belarus and Ireland have forged ties over the decades thanks to the Adi Roche and Chornobyl children’s aid programmes, which fostered positive relations between Dublin and Minsk’s liberal emigre class.
The boys and girls who flocked to Ireland in the 00s have blossomed into the nation’s Westernised elite in exile as the country battles against the entrenched regime of Alexander Lukashenko, who, despite stabilising the country, has far outstayed his welcome in the eyes of Minsk’s liberals, nationalists and bourgeoisie.
Ireland has developed an unusually close relationship with the Belarusian democratic opposition, particularly with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the opposition leader who challenged Alexander Lukashenko in the disputed 2020 presidential election.
Tsikhanouskaya herself availed of the repatriation scheme to forge roots with Roscrea in Tipperary, with Ireland questioning the legitimacy of the Belarusian election of 2020, which saw Lukashenko limp to power again for a sixth consecutive term.
Our state coffers contributed to the attempted heave against the Belarusian autocrat in 2019 through civil society grants, with Dublin civil servants institutionalising EU-level engagement with the Belarusian opposition through the Council of Europe and supporting action through the EU and OSCE.
For all the Russian-inspired misinformation and ideological slant, it is a peculiar mistake for readers to regard Alexander Lukashenko as some paradigm of European conservatism or nationalism. Lukashenko’s political order depends upon economic structures, demographic resources and geopolitical arrangements that are increasingly difficult to sustain.
Put simply, it was perhaps prudent to maintain Soviet legacy institutions and practices in the 1990s to prevent a Russian style collapse but thirty plus years on such measures and the parasitic securocrats who enforce them are dragging Belaruss at large down.
Belarus is bleeding demographically. Its population fell to approximately 9.06 million at the beginning of 2026, while emigration, ageing and a shrinking workforce threaten its longer-term economic prospects. The departure of educated young Belarusians following the repression of 2020 has compounded these problems.
The direct Irish interest is modest in fostering a democratic Belarus with the spectre of a Ukrainian-style invasion lurking in the background should the Lukashenko regime implode (itself likely on borrowed time) as it integrates itself into a wider Eurasian security state away from the West.
It is equally reductive to imagine that the alternative to Lukashenko must be a collection of hyper-progressive NATO enthusiasts intent on dismantling Belarusian national identity. Such caricatures betray a remarkably superficial understanding of Eastern Europe.
Polish and Baltic nationalisms and social conservatism did not disappear with European integration; these countries became independent states with stronger institutions, substantial economic growth and the means to defend their national interests at an EU and multilateral level. Their experiences have hardly been unblemished, particularly given demographic decline and emigration in the Baltics, but their relative success is difficult to dismiss when one compares the relative boomtowns of Warsaw, Tallinn and Vilnius to the rotting Belarussian interior.
Currently, Belarusian nationalism and liberalism reinforce one another per the 19th-century model by which European nation-states came about. Tsikhanouskaya’s democratic opposition cannot simply be understood as a left-liberal movement seeking to import Western values. It also includes a deeply national movement seeking to secure the future of Belarus as a distinct European nation over a Eurasian alternative (itself embracing its own form of replacement migration)
None of this requires interpreting the Belarusian democratic movement as a NATO project. Belarusian national independence is an objective in its own right. The interests of Belarusian democrats and Western governments may coincide, but that does not make the former instruments of the latter.
For Ireland, the stakes are indirect but meaningful. Ireland has little interest in another destabilising confrontation on Europe’s eastern frontier, and every interest in a continent of secure, independent states.
Perhaps Ireland is rather too big for its boots if it imagines it can meaningfully determine the geopolitical future of Eastern Europe. But Belarus offers a lesson closer to home. Demographic decline cannot be arrested by nostalgia or state coercion. Belarussians, just like Irish zoomers filing off for Australia, need reasons to stay, to raise families, and to invest their futures in the country of their birth. That requires economic opportunity and functioning institutions, and something post-Soviet strongmen can never provide.
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Shills or Gallant Allies!
Just explain to me and all interested Irish People WHY IRELAND’S DEVASTATING PLIGHT OVER 800 YEARS WAS IGNORED GLOBALLY…bar the tribal American Indian
donation that ignored the ENGLISH CROWNS
set limit to not exceed Victoria’s poxy paltry
pittance to poverty.
…then explain how a rogue nongovering west
brit elite establishment in Irish Dàil wants to
BAILOUT THE GLOBAL POPULATION…and not
THE IRISH PEOPLE’S NATION…a parcel of rogues.
Just explain to me and all interested Irish People WHY IRELAND’S DEVASTATING PLIGHT OVER 800 YEARS WAS IGNORED GLOBALLY
Ivaus, didn’t you know? According President Woodrow Wilson, who because of his relationship to Lloyd George, declined to support Ireland’s right to self-determination inspite of his support for other small nations at the League of Nations, explaining away the exclusion of Ireland as a “metaphysical tragedy.”
The Irish can only depend on their own.
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Thank you Gearon for a limited reply.
Historically, before Lloyed,Woodrow,League of
Nations, Irish People were used and abused
by a growing English Empire,
…a Civil war for the foundation of of what became an Imperialist America against the
English Empire, in thousands of Irish volunteer
and soldier that was debaced by protestant
America on arrival, with no black,dog or Irish.
…a ww1 and ww2 that again used thousands
of Irish in defence of Colonyism/Imperialism,
before the foundation of League of Nations.
…a UN that replaced LON using Veto Power by
both UK/US to use Irish Defence forces at their call.
…the disgusting links of USUK to date to control global publication to their own advantage.
…well Gearon, you suprised me with your lack
of information and assuming the Irish are ill
informed.
…and the ultimate hypocracy is you both chant to the world God save the King USUK.
Ivaus, I was being ironic. “Didn’t you know” is a kind of standard lead-in, like “haven’t you heard”, to an ironic statement when both people are in agreement and sharing the joke. I guess it’s an expression only used over here. I apologize for expressing myself awkwardly and causing offense. Of course I know you know history, especially of Ireland, very deeply. That’s why I enjoy reading your comments and learn a lot from you. The ” metaphysical tragedy” story is my favorite example of hypocrisy and i was only trotting it out again.
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My sincere and humble apology to you Gearon
Things are so close to the bone as what is
happening right now in Our Home Country and
my birthplace of Dublin that it makes the US of A look like a picnic in comparison.It takes
real men and Nations to accept the truth but
only A Gentleman like you to apologise for an
unintendid mistake…my mistake I own it.
By way of explanation and apology I will recommend to you my friend the latest 2 books I am reading.The 1st being LAND by
Maggie o’ Farrell, set in early rural Ireland and
the connection to Irish Mythology.The 2nd is
A piece of red cloth by Leonie Norrington, set
in precolonised Australia and the decendant
of an Irish Catholic and Yolnu tribe,the oldest
living ethnic group on this planet.Ive read countless versions of history and these 2 are
timely in their shared histories and culture.
Trump’s fall from grace would all be forgiven if
in his last 2 years he could Save Ireland by
exposing and deposing the Muppet Martin, it
would be bigger than any GFA and pitch the
Strongist Republican Patriot against the
Weakist Republican Traitor and Turncoat in all
of Irish American Relations and Diaspora Globally…spread the word my true friend.
Ivaus, my heart warms, thank you, a chara! I think the world could take a lesson from the both of us, but I’m not holding out too much hope. But then, hope is a blessed virtue, so we must keep trying.
Thank you for recommending those books – they are exactly what I would love to dig into. I did not know that about that Australian tribe. As I said, I learn from you.
There is a fascinating book I’m reading now about the Irish language by Manchán Magan – Thirty-two Words For Field. I had thought it would be a cute little book about language but it is so much more than that and cuts right into the soul of our history and culture.
Thank you again for so graciously accepting my apology. We have to stand together for the people we love.
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I STAND BY YOU…will let nobody hurt you I’ll stand by you.A big hit in its day that ment so
much to relationships between Man and God.
Thank you Gearon for your insights and book
reference,I’ll chase it up and it reminds me of
the time I mentioned The Field to you that was
a movie with Richard Harriss in leading role.
We’re both in the long tooth period of life now
and although at times to me I am saddened by
use of social media as another means to get
Irish People and Diaspora motivated,
…it is nevertheless spoken with a Warriors Heart and committment…Our True Identity.
You need to be extremely naive ,if you believe there are no sinister forces like the CIA/NATO/EU attempting a Regime change operation in Belarus.
Using the ‘useful idiots’ of Belarus liberals as cover ,with support from the other ‘useful idiots’ of Irelands Regime.
Any Nation that abuts Russia is a candidate for Regime change and the planting of a NATO base with nuclear missile capability.
Hence the war in Ukraine.
The never ending war on Russia and Western Russophobia goes back to the Crimean War of 1853, where the expanding Russian Empire was seen as a threat to the British Empire ,especially the ‘jewel in the crown ‘ India.
The American Civil Wat 1861-5 had Britain supporting the Confederacy and the Russian Imperial Navy anchored off the West coast supporting the Union.
History may not repeat ,but it certainly rhymes